The coronavirus outbreak is taking a toll on people, while the vaccines are still under trial, a statement by the government panel recently said that half of the Indian population may be infected by the coronavirus by February 2021. India right now is only second to the United States in terms of total infection, reached its peak in mid-September and now, the total number of new cases each day are decreasing. Read on to find out more on this.
- The spread of the novel coronavirus might slow down post-February, after 50% of the 1.3 billion Indian population is infected, said a government committee providing projections.
- Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute for Technology (IIT), Kanpur and a committee member said, “Our mathematical model estimates that around 30% of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50% by February.”
- When compared to the central government’s serological surveys, the committee’s estimate of the current spread is much higher.
- The committee member informed, that the serological surveys might not be able to get sampling close to proximity pertaining to the small size of the population surveyed.
- But the report made by this government committee, constituting scientists, virgologists, and other experts- has relied on a mathematical model.
- About which Manindra Agarwal added, “We have evolved a new model which explicitly takes into account unreported cases, so we can divide infected people into two categories- reported cases and infections that do not get reported.”
- While staying this, the committee also warned that if proper precautions are not taken, i.e, wearing a mask, maintaining social distance, and hand hygiene- the cases could spike up to 2.6 million infections in a single month and that the prediction would then not validate.
- Experts have warned that the total number of people getting affected by the virus might witness a surge during the months of festivities.
Over to you.
While the world is waiting for it’s functioning to reinstate, not taking proper precautionary measures can further delay the recovery. So, while we move further with unlocking, it is still better if individuals stay at home until and unless important, or if moving out, then not being careless of the virus.